With summer almost here and temperatures rising, many people are already hoping for cooler temperatures. Additionally, Gerard Jebaily, the chief meteorologist of FOX 45 in Baltimore, Maryland, has chosen to release a seasonal outlook ahead of schedule, whereas most meteorologists would wait until October to do so. Jebaily provided a very early preview of the winter season in a lighthearted jab at the widely used long-range forecasts that are frequently published months in advance.
Three separate, and very amusing, forecast zones are depicted on Jebaily’s satirical map. Among his forecasts are:
Colder than it is now: This zone satirically highlights the obvious—that this year’s winter will actually be colder than the summer.More snow than the previous month: This forecast, which is meant to be humorous, states that there will most likely be more snowfall in winter than in July.Snowier and colder, but pink: The colorful, frequently ambiguous maps that come with many seasonal forecasts—which can employ general, non-specific terminology to span wide areas—are cleverly parodied by this last zone.
Jebaily’s perspective raises an important point regarding long-range weather forecasts, even though it is only for amusement. Although seasonal forecasts, like those from the Farmers Almanac, are a common summertime custom, there is much disagreement regarding their veracity. They are ultimately constrained by the intrinsic unpredictability of weather patterns over such a long period, even though they are based on some real scientific evidence. Sometimes these predictions are as accurate as they are wrong.
Jebaily’s amusing preview serves as a reminder to appreciate the complexity and volatility of our weather and to be skeptical of these long-range forecasts.
